Coronavirus Surge Deception

All we’re hearing on the news of late is how coronavirus infection is surging in a number of areas of the country, including here in my own state of Arizona, to which I reply:

So What?

Here’s why I am so dismissive of this latest media narrative:

1. The Number of New “Infections” is Meaningless. They are trying to make you think that tens of thousands of new people are getting sick. They’re not. All these “increases” mean is that more people are testing positive for coronavirus. A minuscule percentage of these actually get sick in any significant degree. The important issue is how many people are actually getting sick and how many people are dying from coronavirus infection. New “infections” do not equal new illnesses!

The primary reason there’s a dramatic increase in the number of positive tests is simply that more people are being tested. Originally testing was mostly being done on sick or at risk people. Now a much larger swath of the population is being tested, revealing what we should have known all along, that a large percentage of the population will technically become infected (positive COVID-19 test) because viruses just readily spread even with all the “mitigation” efforts. As I said in last week’s newsletter, mitigation efforts are like trying to keep mosquitoes out with a chain link fence!

2. The Death Rate is Going DOWN.The number of people actually dying from coronavirus infection has been going down for over two months. According to CDC statistics for “All Deaths Involving COVID-19” (which I don’t totally trust because they don’t distinguish between people dying withcoronavirus who had underlying health problems from those truly dying from coronavirus alone), deaths peaked the week ending April 18th at 16,374. Deaths last week in the U. S. totaled just 71 — a 99.5% decrease in mortality! In other words, it’s practically over, but since that doesn’t fit the necessary narrative to keep the country in turmoil until the coming presidential election, they will emphasize all the so-called “new cases,” which will be blamed on Donald Trump or governors that are reopening their states.

But aren’t deaths ramping up in the states where the supposed “surge” in cases is taking place? Well, here are the numbers for Arizona, Texas and Florida — three of the most mentioned “surge” states. Current death rate from COVID-19 per 100,000 people is 25 in Arizona, 17 in Florida and 9 in Texas. That compares with a death rate per 100,000 in New Jersey of 171, in New York of 166 and Connecticut of 122.

WHAT ABOUT INCREASED HOSPITALIZATIONS?

Another thing we’re hearing on the news is that COVID-19 ICU units at hospitals are being maxed out. As mentioned in last week’s newsletter, the higher number of people testing positive (due to more widespread testing) are being isolated into ICU units regardless of whether they are really “sick” with coronavirus symptoms. Doctors are not seeing symptoms as severe and these hospitalizations are shorter. I think it’s safe to say that more ICU beds are being occupied with those testing positive for coronavirus out of an abundance of caution more than out of true need.

WHAT ABOUT YOUNGER PEOPLE BECOMING INFECTED?

One of the other “alarms” being sounded by the media is that more younger people are becoming infected — meaning actually that the median age of people testing positive is going down. First, let’s answer why that is: (1) More younger people are being tested. In other words, lots of younger people were “positive” for coronavirus before, but we just didn’t know that because they weren’t being tested as much. (2) Younger people are more likely to be social and be out and about around other people. Thus, they are more likely to be exposed to the virus and thus test positive. It is rare for younger people to have severe symptoms and an infinitesimally small number of younger people have actually died from the infection.

MORE ON “HERD IMMUNITY”

Last week I referred to the comments of Scott Atlas, MD, of the Hoover Institution and Stanford University Medical Center, concerning the benefit of more younger people becoming “infected” so as to create herd immunity. That is seconded by Ramin Oskoui, MD, Cardiologist at Foxhall Cardiology in an interview this week with Laura Ingraham, a doctor who is treating many coronavirus patients. Herd immunity is created by a sufficient number of people being exposed to a viral pathogen and producing antibodies. When enough people have thus “had” the virus and are immune, the virus finds no hosts and dies out. Dr. Oskoui notes that not locking down and allowing younger, low-risk people to be exposed to the virus increases herd immunity, though also noting that the high-risk population should be isolated as much as possible from exposure.

ENCOURAGED BY YOUR COMMENTS

Frankly, it’s been tough writing about this subject every week for several months now. While a couple of people have taken exception to my reporting on this, most of our clients and customers have expressed appreciation and relief at the perspective I’ve shared and have also confirmed my statements. Karen from Kitsap County, Washington, regarding last week’s article, said:

The entire article blessed me so much because I feel like a fish out of water, like a stranger in a foreign land. So many people are living in fear and I’ve even found separation in my family due to some living in such strong fear.

She then passed on to me some reporting about two supposed “deaths” from coronavirus in her area. One involved a man who died from complications of heart surgery but was reported as a COVID-19 death. The other involved a woman in the end stages of terminal lung cancer, again reported as a coronavirus death because she tested positive. As I have repeatedly said, don’t believe these overinflated mortality numbers. Yes, a large number of people have died from coronavirus, just as die every year from seasonal flu, but it is a fraction of the number the media is reporting.

I have been sarcastically saying that the one benefit of the coronavirus pandemic is that it has cured all other diseases — no one seems to die of anything else these days!

— Monte Kline, Ph.D.