Let’s catch up, whether you’ve been reading this newsletter the last several weeks or you’re new. Coronavirus COVID-19 is a serious health problem that is affecting millions around the world. Prevention is paramount. While saying this, I am also saying that, compared to other recent pandemics, this has been over-hyped by the media. While it is a severe problem, particularly in many large cities, it’s a pretty minor problem in much of the country, including where I live. That is no comfort to one who is dealing with significant symptoms of the infection, but it is an important perspective for the 99% of the population who are not presently affected.

 

A huge increase in testing (now over one million in the U. S. have been tested) has resulted in a huge increase in the number testing positive for the virus. But to keep that in perspective, the CDC says that 25% of those testing positive experience no symptoms and most who do have symptoms have minor ones. Comparitively few have life-threatening symptoms. The latest study in the Lancet indicates a mortality rate of 0.66%, considerable less than the 3% or more some predicted a few weeks ago. That, however, is still six times higher than the 0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu.

 

COVID-19 appears to be much more transmissible than the seasonal flu, though obviously dying from the seasonal flu or dying from coronavirus represent the same result. My focus on comparing the coronavirus numbers to past flu pandemics is not to say it is the same as the flu, but simply to put mortality risk in perspective.

 

TODAY’S NUMBERS

 

 

So, where are we at today? In the U. S., 189,633 people have tested positive for COVID-19 and 4,081 have died (statistics from morning of April 1st). As a week ago 61,167 had tested positive and 849 had died. These numbers will continue to rise, especially given the increase in testing, but a peak in new infections may be seen by the middle of this month. For example, the rate of increase in new infections is already going down both in Washington and California, not to mention in South Korea, Italy, and China (if we can trust their numbers). Population-dense New York City, of course, is the worst concentration in the U. S.

 

 

 

As noted in previous newsletters, seasonal flu kills 40,000 – 80,000 people per year in the U.S. We have quite a ways to go before COVID-19 deaths, currently at just over 4000, would get to that level. Could they? Certainly. The most negative predictions by authorities are saying 100,000 – 240,000 deaths in the U.S., though that upper number is based on the false model that the rest of the country would have the same incidence and rate of increase as New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Personally, I expect it to be under 50,000, but I could of course be wrong. And, make no mistake, that’s 50,000 too many — most of which I think could have been prevented with the right kind of immune-enhancing program.

 

As mentioned in previous newsletters, 7700 people die every day in the U. S. from all causes, 162 per day in my state of Arizona. Three per day die on average every day in Arizona from car accidents. Yet in the whole period of the coronavirus pandemic 1267 people have tested positive and 11 have died in this state. Again, I don’t say this to minimize anyone’s situation who is suffering from this, but we have to look at the overall numbers to keep a reasonable perspective on what is happening and how we should respond.

 

 

 

To some it seems crass to balance physical health concerns with economic concerns relative to coronavirus. That’s actually a false dichotomy because the economic impact of coronavirus actually produces significant physical health symptoms as well. Financial hardship in a country that has largely shut down economically produces many health issues, including suicide, substance abuse, depression, divorce, child abuse, domestic violence and more. Fear and uncertainly also kill.

 

In my very finite and limited assessment I am concerned that we are at the tipping point (or maybe already past it) where the economic destruction caused by shutting down the whole country is more significant to life and health than COVID-19 infections themselves. While 99%+ of the coronavirus-infected will fully recover in days or weeks. shutting down the economy for much longer will take years to recover. The energy industry alone is on the verge of collapse with $20 per barrel oil (I paid $1.65/gallon for gas at Costco today — if only they had toilet paper and paper towels!) and the prediction is that it could drop below $10 per barrel. Not only does that cause a huge increase in unemployment and poverty, but it again puts the security of the country at risk by being dependent on Middle East oil after our recent years of energy independence and being the world’s largest exporter of oil.

 

If there isn’t at least a partial re-opening of the economy (e. g. in areas not experiencing major COVID-19 problems) by mid-April, I fear irreparable damage will be done to the economy, and thus to our lives and health.

 

 

 

I must confess that I took the fake on this one. I assumed that when all the “authorities” were saying that wearing a mask was of no value for the general public, and that masks needed to be saved for healthcare workers. I believed them. They never explained how masks would be effective for healthcare workers but wouldn’t work for the regular folks. The truth, of course, was that there weren’t enough masks for everyone and they wanted to make sure healthcare workers got priority, so they just lied to the rest of us. Meanwhile in China and South Korea and Italy, where there is heavy usage of masks, the number of new cases has gone drastically down. So today, for the first time during the coronavirus pandemic I wore a mask at Costco and my chiropractor’s office. If you can get masks, I would wear them in situations around other people.

 

 

 

This is a rough time for all of us, especially those infected with symptoms. It’s also an opportunity to connect by phone and email and social media with one another to give encouragement. Our church, in addition to having services online like thousands around the country, is also posting brief, five to ten minute, devotionals daily. I’ve recorded a couple of these, as have two of our pastors. If you would like to view CLICK HERE.